Exposure-response modeling and clinical trial simulation of the effect of tolterodine on QT intervals in healthy volunteers.

The objective of this analysis was to explore exposure-response modeling of data from a thorough QT (TQT) study of tolterodine in CYP2D6 extensive (EMs) and poor metabolizers (PMs). Crossover treatments of the TQT study included the recommended (2 mg twice daily) and supratherapeutic (4 mg twice daily) doses of tolterodine, moxifloxacin (400 mg once daily), and placebo. The concentration-response relationships for the QTc effects of moxifloxacin and tolterodine were described using a linear model with baseline effect, placebo effect, and a drug effect. The mixed effects modeling approach, using the first order conditional estimation method, was implemented in NONMEM. Simulated data from 250 trial replicates were used for limited predictive check and to describe the expected extreme responders in this study, under the derived model and point estimates. Modeling results for tolterodine showed linear concentrationdependent increases in QTc interval, with no difference in slopes between EMs and PMs. Modelpredicted QTc prolongations for tolterodine and moxifloxacin were consistent with their respective observed mean results. No subjects were predicted to have increases of > 60 milliseconds (ms); the predicted incidence of borderline QTc increases (> 30 and ≤ 60 ms) remained low at the supratherapeutic tolterodine dose in both PMs (9.1%) and EMs (3.9%). In conclusions, this analysis supports our clinical experience that tolterodine does not have a clinically significant effect on QT interval.